Table of Contents
- Introduction
- Biggest Price Drops
- What’s Driving Prices
- Where It’s Cheapest This Holiday
- Where It’s Priciest – and What to Swap
- Cheapest Departure Metros
- When to Book
- Best Days to Fly & Airport Tactics
- Methodology and Notes
1. Intro
Holiday airfare hasn’t looked this forgiving since 2022, and the gap between “peak” and “almost-peak” is wide. Our job at Dollar Flight Club is to help you live in that gap, where a one‑day shift or an airport swap turns a decent fare into a great experience for you as a traveler.
Here’s the good news: In our analysis of ~250 high-volume holiday routes spanning 80+ airports and 40+ U.S. origin metros, domestic medians are ~19% lower versus a 2022–2024 holiday baseline, and international medians are ~9% lower. That’s the average. The outsized value shows up when you use the two levers we obsess over: flex a day and swap airports. On specific routes inside the Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year windows, prices are as much as ~50% lower than comparable holiday periods the last few years.
2. Biggest Price Drops
What you’ll find here: The sharpest, most bookable declines we’re seeing inside the Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year windows. We highlight the route, what’s pushing prices down (capacity, competition, shoulder overlap), and the small move that unlocks it.
Below are the sharpest fall‑offs we’re seeing inside the holiday windows. I’m including a quick “why” plus a “how to book.” Percent changes are versus our 2022–2024 holiday baseline unless noted.
New York City (LaGuardia / JFK) → Miami / Fort Lauderdale
- As low as: $98 roundtrip (LaGuardia → Miami) ~36–41% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s down: Two major airports (MIA + FLL) competing head-to-head, plus added seasonal airline capacity.
- How to book: Search both FLL and MIA, depart Tue/Wed, return Fri/Sat, and book 3–6 weeks out.
Chicago (O’Hare / Midway) → Cancún (CUN)
- As low as: $221 roundtrip (O’Hare → Cancún) ~32% lower than last year.
- Why it’s down: Expanded leisure capacity and shoulder-season overlap pushing holiday fares down.
- How to book: Shop 4-6 weeks out, and check Cozumel (CZM) if flexible as it can undercut CUN on off-peak days.
Houston / Dallas–Fort Worth → Mexico City (MEX / Toluca TLC)
- As low as: $178 roundtrip (Houston Hobby → Mexico City) ~28% lower than last year.
- Why it’s down: Multiple carriers and deeper schedules between Texas hubs and central Mexico.
- How to book: Compare HOU vs IAH and MEX vs TLC, booking 4-6 weeks out for best availability.
Los Angeles / New York City → Rome (FCO)
- As low as: $297–$401 roundtrip ~30% lower vs 2024.
- Why it’s down: Extra transatlantic winter capacity and airlines lowering fares on holiday-day departures.
- How to book: Depart Dec 24/25 and return Jan 1; book 6–12 weeks ahead.
New York City / Boston → San Juan (SJU)
- As low as: $145 roundtrip ~25% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s down: Added airline capacity into Puerto Rico’s peak routes.
- How to book: Fly on or near holiday days, compare JFK vs EWR, and book 4–6 weeks out.
Mid-Atlantic / New York City → Orlando (MCO / Sanford SFB)
- As low as: $38–$120 roundtrip ~40% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s down: Significant capacity increases into Orlando International (MCO) plus competition from Sanford (SFB).
- How to book: Price both airports, book 4–8 weeks out, and look for midweek or holiday-day departures.
Los Angeles → São Paulo (GRU / Viracopos VCP)
- As low as: $371 roundtrip ~33% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s down: Competitive long-haul market and soft pricing on Christmas-week departures.
- How to book: Check GRU vs VCP; even with a positioning hop (if you live in Phoenix, taking a cheap Southwest flight to LAX first on a separate ticket), total cost can beat direct fares. Book 6–12 weeks out.
Chicago → Rome / Milan (FCO / MXP)
- As low as: Under $500 roundtrip ~27% lower vs 2024.
- Why it’s down: Added winter transatlantic lift; Milan often prices below Rome.
- How to book: Depart Dec 24/31 or Jan 1, book 6–12 weeks ahead.
Texas (Austin / Dallas / Houston) → Cancún (CUN)
- As low as: $206 roundtrip ~29% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s down: Expanded leisure service and fare pressure from low-cost carriers.
- How to book: Book 6–10 weeks out, favor Mon/Tue departures for the best rates.
3. What’s Driving Prices (quick explainer)
The macro picture explains it all. More seats where people want to go, smarter competition on key hubs, and softer edges around the peak days are combining to pull fares down, especially when you’re flexible by a day or two.
- Capacity + competition are finally where demand is. Florida and Mexico are the big winners; select transatlantic pairs added winter seats.
- Demand shifted by a day or two. Fly on the holiday or ±1–3 days and prices fall sharply.
- Shoulder overlap inside the windows. Sun destinations are pulling shoulder pricing into peak weeks.
- Macro tailwinds. Jet fuel is trending lower than 2024; revenue teams are focused on filling off‑peak seats.
How DFC helps: Members get multi‑airport alerts (ex: FLL↔MIA, EWR/JFK/LGA, SJC/OAK/SFO) and date‑flex windows so you see exactly which day to move to unlock the cheaper deals.
4. Where It’s Cheapest This Holiday
Start with the destinations below if you’re hunting for quick wins. We list the lowest roundtrips we’ve seen in our system, why those prices are showing up, and how to book them (weeks out + airport swaps). These are the alerts members keep snagging.
Florida and Mexico are the easy wins. If you want long‑haul without long‑haul prices, Italy and Brazil are the plays this year. Fly on the holiday or pivot airports and you’ll see what I mean.
Miami / Fort Lauderdale (MIA / FLL)
- As low as: $78–$114 roundtrip (Boston → Fort Lauderdale from $78; New York LaGuardia → Miami from $98) ~36–41% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Heavy two-airport competition and added seasonal lift into South Florida.
- How to book: Search both MIA and FLL, book 3–6 weeks out, and compare mid-week departures for best value.
Tampa (TPA / St. Pete–Clearwater PIE)
- As low as: $76 roundtrip (Charlotte → Tampa) ~34% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Extra holiday capacity from ultra-low-cost carriers and shoulder-season overlap.
- How to book: Check both TPA and PIE, and book 3–6 weeks out.
Orlando (MCO / Sanford SFB)
- As low as: $38–$142 roundtrip (Houston → Orlando from $38) ~40% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Massive seat growth into MCO and competing service into SFB.
- How to book: Always price both airports and book 4–6 weeks ahead; mid-week flights often undercut weekend fares.
Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW / Dallas Love Field DAL)
- As low as: $80 roundtrip (Indianapolis → DFW) ~27% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Hub competition and softer demand on shoulder travel days.
- How to book: Look for Mon/Tue departures and Fri/Sat returns, book 4–6 weeks out.
Cancún, Mexico (CUN)
- As low as: $206 roundtrip (Dallas–Fort Worth → Cancún) ~29% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Surging leisure capacity and overlapping shoulder-season pricing.
- How to book: Book 6–10 weeks out, favor mid-week departures for best fares.
Vancouver, Canada (YVR)
- As low as: $101 roundtrip (Los Angeles → Vancouver) ~25% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Increased cross-border competition and steady winter demand.
- How to book: Book 4–8 weeks out, and check Bellingham (BLI) if you’re near Seattle for possible undercuts.
São Paulo, Brazil (Guarulhos GRU / Viracopos VCP)
- As low as: $371 roundtrip (Orlando Sanford → São Paulo) ~33% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Competitive long-haul pricing and undercutting from secondary airports.
- How to book: Compare GRU vs VCP; if needed, position via a cheap domestic hop ( (if you live in Phoenix, taking a cheap Southwest flight to LAX first on a separate ticket). Book 6–12 weeks ahead.
Mexico City, Mexico (Benito Juárez MEX / Toluca TLC)
- As low as: $171–$178 roundtrip (Dallas–Fort Worth → Mexico City) ~28% lower vs last year.
- Why it’s cheap: Deep schedule options and healthy airline competition from Texas hubs.
- How to book: Check both MEX and TLC, and book 6–10 weeks out.
5. Where It’s Priciest - and What to Swap
Don’t abandon the trip, pivot it: Peak places are still peak. But the best move isn’t to wait; it’s to swap to a nearby airport/destination or to fly on the holiday. We show the highest‑pressure spots and the pivots our alerts recommend in real time.
When your A‑list pick is expensive, a nearby alternative usually cuts 20–30% without giving much up.
6. Cheapest Departure Metros (vs previous years; Thanksgiving + Xmas/NY)
Why origin matters more this year: With more capacity and tighter competition, some home airports are simply advantaged this holiday season. If you’re in one of these metros it puts you in a great spot to save on flights this year.
The same trendline shows up across our alert data: more seasonal capacity + sharper hub competition. Airport choice matters (think SJC vs SFO, EWR vs JFK/LGA, HOU vs IAH). Here are the standouts in our system right now: Boston and Houston departures are leading the drops which is great news for the Northeast and Gulf.
7. When to Book (Thanksgiving vs Christmas/New Year)
These ranges reflect where we’re consistently seeing drops in our data right now. Use them as a playbook; if your fare drifts higher, we’ll nudge you toward the right swap or date move.
Here’s the working guidance based on what we’re seeing right now and how our alerts nudge you when prices drop:
Thanksgiving 2025
- Domestic: 3–7 weeks out
- International: 6–10 weeks out
Christmas/New Year 2025–26
- Domestic: 4–8 weeks out
- International: 6–12 weeks out
If prices pop, try alternate airports (FLL↔MIA, EWR/JFK/LGA, SJC/OAK/SFO, SNA/LGB/ONT↔LAX) and move dates ±1–3 days.
Thanksgiving tends to book closer than Christmas. Don’t panic if prices go up. Use the windows and flex a day.
8. Best Days To Fly & Airport Tactics
We focus here on the best days to fly and simple airport moves that save real money during the busiest, most delayed‑prone weeks of the year. Follow these tips and you will pay less, and you will have better backup options when weather hits.
Time of day
- First departures are often the cheapest and the most on time. Fewer rolling delays.
- Late‑night red‑eyes into Dec 24, Dec 25, Dec 31, and Jan 1 undercut daytime flights.
- If prices look flat across days, sort by departure time. Early morning wins by 10 to 20 percent on busy routes.
Holiday‑specific cheat codes
- Thanksgiving: Fly Thursday morning and return Saturday morning. That pair is often the lowest.
- Christmas and New Year: Depart Dec 24 or 25. Return Jan 1 or Jan 2. Jan 3 to Jan 6 is the soft spot for returns.
Positioning that actually pays
- If your home airport is expensive, take a cheap hop to a deal‑heavy metro, then fly the long leg.
- Example pattern: SLC to LAX 79 dollars, then LAX to FCO 401 dollars. Total can still beat a SLC to FCO flight.
Weather and disruption prep
- Book the earliest leg. Have one or two backup flights picked out before you get to the airport.
- If things go sideways, get in line, use the app, and message the airline at the same time. Take the first confirmed option that gets you moving.
- Carry‑on only if you can. Bags limit your rebooking choices.
Credit card safety net
- Use a card with trip delay and interruption coverage. During holidays, that benefit is worth more than a small fare gap.
- If an ultra low cost carrier like Spirit is within 20 to 30 dollars of a legacy and your card covers delays on the legacy, take the legacy.
Book direct with the airline
- Book direct when you can. Rebooking is faster, agents have more tools, and you avoid third‑party handoffs.
- If you use an online agency for price reasons, make sure you can still manage the ticket in the airline app and know the 24‑hour cancel rule.
9. Methodology and Notes
We use Dollar Flight Club’s alert and partner data to track the lowest observed roundtrip economy fares by route during defined holiday windows, then compare them to matched 2022–2024 periods. Medians keep outliers in check; we exclude obvious mistakes and keep Basic Economy unless noted.
Holiday windows used:
- Thanksgiving 2025 travel: Sat Nov 22 – Tue Dec 2 (Thanksgiving is Thu Nov 27, 2025)
- Christmas/New Year 2025–26 travel: Thu Dec 18 – Tue Jan 6
Data: We benchmark comparable 2022–2024 holiday windows. We use medians of the lowest observed roundtrip economy fares per route from Dollar Flight Club alerts and partners. Basic Economy included unless noted; obvious mistake fares excluded. Prices above reflect fares observed in our system during the windows listed; availability and prices can change quickly.
